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Sunday, August 22, 2010

Office and Confidence Pool Pick Tips

Picking the outcomes of NFL games is not as easy as it first sounds. When first asked to participate in an NFL office pool and was told all that I had to do was pick NFL game winners without having to worry about the point spread, I thought to myself how hard can that be. Plenty hard it turns out. So I am going to list some factors to consider when making your NFL pool picks and hope that you can use a few of them to help you win your pool.

The first question you have to ask yourself is what type of pool am I in? Is it a weekly only pool, a season only pool or a combination of the two. The answer to this question will define your strategy.

Listed below are some factors that can go into making weekly NFL picks.

* Home team - In the NFL the home team wins approximately 60%
    of the time over the course of the season.
* The favored team according to the line/spread.
* The quality of the opponent and who they have played previously.
* Injuries or suspensions of key players.
* Division games and rivalry games.
* Does the game mean anything to a team, e.g., a playoff spot.
* Teams traveling coast to coast.
* Weather - heat, rain, snow, etc.
* Grass or artificial turf.
* Dome or open air stadium.
* Recency bias. Don't pick a team to win only because they
    won the week before.
* Even the bad teams will ususally (but not always) win about 4 games during the season.

* Take a look at who some of the NFL experts are picking. Sometimes just one more win can help your record.